美国楼市到底有多糟？
英国《金融时报》Lex专栏
2008年5月30日 星期五
美国的房地产市场到底有多糟糕？广受关注的标准普尔/Case-Shiller房价指数看上去很恐怖。该指数最新数据显示，房价正在加速下滑，今年一季度同比下跌14%，较2006年的峰值下跌逾16%。相比之下，联邦住房企业监督办公室(Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight)的数据显示，房价在繁荣时期的涨幅没有那么高，在2007年到达峰值，此后已下跌约4%。全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)的数据位于两者之间。
Just how bad is the US housing market? The widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller index looks horrible. Its latest figures show prices accelerating downwards. They fell over 14 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter and are down more than 16 per cent from their 2006 peak. Contrast that with data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight that showed prices appreciating less rapidly during the boom and peaking in 2007 – since when they have fallen about 4 per cent. Figures from the National Association of Realtors are somewhere in between.
谁是正确的？简单的答案是，它们都对。它们测量的对象不同。Case-Shiller与住企监督办测量的都是一定时间段内同样的单户型住宅交易。Case-Shiller指数涵盖全美70%的地区，而住企监督办的范围更广。但Case-Shiller指数囊括了更多交易类型，包括牵涉巨额与次级抵押贷款的交易，而住企监督办只统计贷款符合联邦住宅抵押贷款 (Freddie Mac)和联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Fannie Mae)标准的房屋。房地产经纪人协会衡量的中间价格追踪的不是同处房产的销售，因而可能受到在售房屋组合的影响。
Which is correct? The short answer is all of them. They measure different things. Both Case-Shiller and Ofheo measure transactions on the same single-family homes over time. Case-Shiller covers 70 per cent of the country, while Ofheo is broader. But Case-Shiller covers more types of purchase, including those with jumbo and subprime mortgages, while Ofheo only measures houses bought with loans conforming to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s criteria. The NAR takes median prices without tracking same house sales, so it can be affected by the mix of houses being sold. full free download晒后黑眼圈怎么快速消除效果好的青少年增高护手青少年增高左旋胸部怎么变大品牌眼部细纹保湿瘦身霜好用搭配技巧祛斑25岁用什么护肤品好瘦腿美白祛斑产品
可以理解，唱衰市场的人会高度关注暴跌的Case-Shiller指数。事实证明这个指数更不稳定，考虑到它包括了更大户型的房屋并根据所购房屋价值对指数加权，这也就不足为奇了。这可能会让巨额抵押贷款占据很大份额的加州等地区更有影响力。可以说，这也是衡量美国房地产业整体破坏程度的最佳方法。可是，住企监督办的数据可能可以让我们更好地了解普通美国人的状况。这方面的消息看起来没有那么吓人。
Understandably, gloom-mongers focus on the plunging Case-Shiller index. It is not surprising that it has proved more volatile, given that it includes bigger houses and weights the index according to value of homes purchased. That is likely to make troubled areas such as California, with a big share of jumbo mortgages, more influential. Arguably, it is also the best measure for the overall destruction of US housing wealth. The Ofheo index, however, perhaps gives a better idea of what average Americans are experiencing. The news on that front looks less alarming.
两个指数体现出的价格跌幅可能并不一致。但有一点两者可以达成共识：痛苦正在向全美范围扩散，而且仍在加深。
The two indices may tell different stories on the quantum of price falls. But one thing both can agree on is that the pain is spreading nationally and is still getting worse.
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。译者/李碧波美国楼市经济观察,美国楼市到底有多糟
