中国通胀趋缓 但隐忧仍在
CHINA'S CPI INFLATION FOR MAY
作者：瑞信(Credit Swisse)亚洲首席经济学家陶冬
2008年6月13日 星期五
●中国5月份消费者物价指数(CPI)趋缓至同比上升7.7%，主要原因是食品通胀势头减弱，以及较高的统计基数。
● 整体通胀率下降，给北京的政策制定者带来他们急需的喘息空间。我们预期今后数月将有一些比较宽松的经济政策出台。
● 整体通胀率趋缓，也许还给中国政府带来一个机会，使其能对价格管制作出一些调整，尤其是在电力和燃料领域，但调整空间很可能较小。
● 这也许标志着食品通胀正在见顶。但我们仍对明年的通胀前景保持谨慎，预期薪资上升将推动明年通胀。
中国5月份消费者物价指数(CPI)趋缓至同比上升7.7%，主要原因是食品通胀势头减弱，以及较高的统计基数。该数据在稍早时得到透露，尽管市场参与者一度对其表示怀疑，因为中国央行在上一个周末刚把银行存款准备金率上调了100个基点。整体通胀率三个月来首次降至8%以下，食品通胀在5月份仍然偏高，但正如市场预期的有所回落，尽管在中国最大的食品生产基地四川省发生了灾难性地震。
这与农业部发布的食品价格调查结果吻合，这些调查显示，5月份中国食品价格呈逐步下降趋势。然而，我们仍预期食品价格的下降，将是一个缓慢的过程，因为价格往往上涨容易，而下调存在粘性。
整体通胀率的下降，尽管很难说幅度够大，而且基本上是借助基数效应实现的，但还是给北京的政策制定者带来了他们急需的喘息空间。中国政府最近新增了一项政策重点，即防止经济减速过快，这一重点将与原有的两个重点一起贯彻，即防止经济过热，以及防止食品通胀蔓延为全面价格飙升。面对全球和区域环境的恶化趋势，北京需要留意经济增长面对的风险。现在，随着通胀趋缓，而奥运会近在眼前，我们预期今后数月将出台一些比较宽松的经济政策。在我们看来，最近一次把银行存款准备金率上调100个基点，恰恰反映了这种政策意图：抢占先机，点到为止。
整体通胀率趋缓，也许还给中国政府带来一个机会，使其能对价格管制作出一些调整，尤其是在电力和燃料领域。不过，即使出台任何提价措施，我们也怀疑提价幅度会很大，因为北京仍对总体通胀前景感到不安。我们预期会看到的情形包括：电费出现小幅上调，燃料价格也可能略有提高，政府推出一些（很可能无效的）措施企图管理煤炭价格，以及向燃料和电力供应商发放一些财政补贴。但这些举措很可能不足以帮助石油和电力公司脱离困境。
数据显示，5月份中国食品通胀趋缓至同比上升19.9%，低于4月份的22.1%。趋缓的主要原因是肉类价格上涨减速，5月份同比上升37.8%，低于4月份的47.9%。不过，粮食价格在5月份同比上升8.6%，比前一个月同比上升7.4%有所加快。食用油通胀(+41.4%)和蔬菜通胀(+10.3%)仍然偏高，但已从各自的顶峰有所回落。非食品通胀为同比上升1.7%，主要推动因素仍为燃料和零部件（同比上升+8.1%）、家用物品（同比上升+2.8%），以及住房（同比上升+7.1%）。
我们相信，中国食品通胀可能正在见顶，并可能在今后两个季度期间继续趋缓，但我们仍对明年的通胀前景保持谨慎。的确，我们预期食品通胀将继续趋缓，主要原因是统计基数不断上升，以及猪肉供应出现改善，尽管改善速度不像许多人所预期的那么快。我们认为，中国的整体消费者物价指数在今年夏天很可能趋缓至6.5%-7.2%的水平。不过，我们对中国各地正在出现的一波又一波加薪感到担忧。中国上市公司的2008年首季财务结果，几乎都在成本方面出乎意料，尤其是薪资成本。预期将出现的农民工短缺，很可能推高服务业价格，从而在2009年，甚至在临近今年底的时候引发第二波通胀。我们认为，更高的薪资，加上不断加速的原料价格上涨（如PPI所显示），可能最终将催生更为严厉的紧缩措施。
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CHINA'S CPI INFLATION FOR MAY
Tao Dong, the Asian Chief Economist of Credit Swisse
Friday, June 13, 2008
●China's CPI inflation for May has moderated to 7.7% YoY, led by softer food inflation and a higher statistics base.
● The lowering of the headline inflation is a much needed break for the policy makers in Beijing. We expect more tolerant economic policies over the next few months.
● The softening in headline inflation may also provide a window for the government to make some adjustments in price controls, especially in power and fuel areas, but the scope is most likely to be small.
● This may mark the peak of food inflation. But we remain cautious on the outlook of inflation for next year, which is expected to be fuelled by wage increases.
China's CPI inflation for May has moderated to 7.7% YoY, led by softer food inflation and a higher statistics base. The figure was leaked out earlier, though market participants had some doubt after the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio by 100 bp over the past weekend. The headline figure moderated for the first time in three months below 8%. Food inflation remained rapid in May but has come down as anticipated, despite the devastating earthquake in the Sichuan province, which is the largest food production base in China.
This is in-line with food price surveys released by the Ministry of Agriculture, which showed a gradual price decline during the month.
Nonetheless, we still expect the lowering of food prices to be a slow process, as prices tend to be easy to rise but sticky to fall.
The lowering of the headline inflation, hardly enough and largely achieved through the base effect, is a much needed break for the policy makers in Beijing. The government recently added a new policy priority of preventing the economy from slowing down too fast, on top of the existing two, i.e., preventing the economy from overheating and preventing food inflation from spreading to a full blown price hikes. Facing a deteriorating global and regional environment, Beijing needs to keep the growth risk in mind. Now, with inflation moderating and Olympics Games at the door step, we expect a more tolerant economic policies over the next few months. In our view, the latest hike of required reserve ratio by 100 bp exactly shows this policy intention – pre-emptive and light handed.
The softening in headline inflation may also provide a window for the government to make some adjustment in price control, especially in power and fuel areas. However, we doubt the price hikes, if any, would be large as Beijing still feels uncomfortable with the overall inflation outlook. We see some minor hikes in power tariffs and possibly fuel prices, some attempt (probably ineffective) to manage coal prices, and some fiscal subsidies to fuel and power suppliers. But they probably will not be enough to pull the oil and power companies out of misery.
Details show that food inflation has moderated to 19.9% YoY in May, compared to 22.1% YoY in April. The moderation was led by slower price increase in meats, which rose 37.8% YoY in May, versus 47.9% YoY in April. Prices of grains, however, rose 8.6% YoY in may, accelerated from 7.4% YoY before. Inflation of edible oils (+41.4%) and vegetables (+10.3%) remained high but has softened from their peaks. Non-food inflation was at 1.7% YoY. Prices for fuels and parts (+8.1% YoY), household items (+2.8% YoY), and residential property (+7.1% YoY) remained the main drivers.
We believe that food inflation may be peaking and is likely to keep moderating over the next two quarters, but remain cautious on the outlook of inflation next year. We do anticipate a continuing softening in food inflation, thanks to a rising statistical base and improved pork supply, albeit not as fast as many have expected. The headline CPI inflation is likely to moderate toward the 6.5-7.2% level during the summer time, in our view. However, we are concerned about the waves of wage hikes taking place in China now. The 1Q 2008 financial results of Chinese listed companies surprised almost universally on costs, especially wage costs. Anticipated shortage in migrant workers is likely to drive up prices in the service sector, creating a second round of inflation in 2009 or earlier towards the end of this year. Higher wages, on top of rising material price increases (as suggested by the PPI), may eventually trigger more aggressive austerity measures, in our opinion.经济观察,中国通胀趋缓但隐忧仍在
