中国股民仍在盼托市
作者：英国《金融时报》帕提•沃德米尔(Patti Waldmeir)
2008年8月9日 星期六
对中国人来说，北京奥运会标志着历史上一个重要时刻。但对数百万中小投资者来说，奥运会还有特殊的意义：他们希望北京奥运会的开幕，标志着上海股市的转机。
北京奥运会于周五晚揭开序幕，没有人能预测中国将赢取多少块奖牌，也没人能预测体育给全国带来胜利的喜悦或失利的屈辱时，上海股市将如何反应。
跟踪中国股市的分析师称，对于一个严重受情绪影响的股市来说，不能排除出现一次由奥运会激发的大幅行情的可能性。
但上海股市观察家称，民族情绪的兴奋或沮丧将是短暂的。
从更长期的角度来看，中国政府的作为才是重要的。
在奥运会筹备阶段，中国政府提出有必要确保市场稳定。中国证监会(China Securities Regulatory Commission)试图限制中国基金经理们的言论，并且禁止他们出国旅行。上月末，证监会警告基金经理（包括中外合资基金管理公司），不要公开发表任何可能引发市场波动的言论。所以，他们现在都不愿让媒体引述其观点。
但是，大多数中国个人投资者都期待比这更为积极的干预措施。仅仅数月前，人们普遍的看法是，中国政府希望看到在奥运会期间股市走强。的确，很多散户认为可以指望政府托市，因为这事关民族自豪感。
然而，那些持此观点的人不断遭受重大亏损。上证综合指数周四收于2727点，比去年10月高点低了55%。在一定程度上，这一跌幅反映出信贷危机引发的全球性股票抛售。但它也受到中国特有因素的驱动，那就是此前市场评级过高——去年10月市场还在炫耀其30多倍的市盈率。相比之下，Thomson Datastream数据显示，目前中国股市市盈率为17倍。此外，人们也担心政府抑制通胀，将会抑制经济增长。
不过，中国政府已经限制新股发行，并且呼吁维护股市稳定。上周，胡锦涛主席重申，北京将在奥运会后继续追求快速的经济增长。但是，北京并未采取更为积极的措施帮助市场摆脱低迷。
然而，中国投资者仍在盼望政府托市。在上海人民广场申银万国证券(Shenyin Wanguo Securities)凉爽、光线暗淡的散户大厅，个人投资者依然相信北京将在奥运会期间托市。就像在中国政治和社会层面上一样，“稳定” 也是这里的时髦词。一名留着小胡子、模样可爱的年轻人说：“政府会托市的。”
“我认为，奥运期间股市不会进一步下跌。如果下跌的话，散户心理上是会不平衡的。”一位60岁的商店退休职员表示。她经常来申银万国交易大厅盯盘。“对奥运期间股市的走势，我们有过过高的预期。现在，我们感到非常失望。” 她接着说道。
这位退休职员告诉我，她姓王。鉴于目前敏感的气氛，大部分投资者根本不愿意透露姓名。
王女士表示，尽管股市下跌，可她在申银万国炒股中还是有乐趣的。她乐于与该券商交易大厅里另外100多个人分享股市的变化无常。对这些人来说，盯盘就是一种生活方式。
王女士说话时，其他投资者也开始聊天，其中包括一位上了年纪的街头小贩。这位小贩拿着一个三条腿的坐凳走了进来，她在股市中投了600元人民币。
根据政府数字，股市中超过50%的投资者是像王女士、街头小贩和留小胡子年轻人这样的人。在这样一个市场中，上述投资者的想法是很重要的。尽管股市在急速下跌，但散户似乎并没有放弃股市。6月份，上交所的交易账户开户量超过6100万，深圳的开户量与之近似。
事实上，上海财经大学(Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)近期调查显示，仅有6%的受访者认为股市会进一步下跌，而27%的受访者对股市目前水平感到满意。
上海股市观察家及《中国私有化：中国股市内幕》(Privatising China: Inside China's Stock Markets)一书作者侯伟(Fraser Howie)表示，今年二季度基金赎回并不意味着投资者对股市丧失信心。
大多数分析师认为，奥运会迄今并未对股票造成直接影响。侯伟表示：“股市与天气的相关性，可能都比与奥运会的相关性更强。”
汇丰(HSBC)的Steven Sun表示，这一次受到奥运会限制措施直接影响的行业——例如化工、水泥和钢铁——对中国GDP的贡献不到0.1%。
Sun补充道，更为重要的因素是，中国官员因被奥运会分心，一直无法将工作重心放在制定支持股市的政策上。
侯伟认为，在相当长的一段时间内，上海股市可能会呈横盘走势。但其他分析师，其中包括摩根大通(JPMorgan)的李晶(Jing Ulrich)则认为，股市会出现反弹。李晶表示，没有什么理由担心奥运会后会出现下跌：“北京与此前大多数奥运会主办城市的关键区别在于，奥运会促进了中国首都基建开发，而这是北京长期现代化所必需的。”
李晶补充道：“市场回到更具吸引力的估值水平，真实利率为负，再加上上半年可观的企业盈利，这些合适的条件或许已为投资者信心的增强做好准备。”
不过，在申银万国的交易大厅，人们的目光都盯在2010年上海世博会(Shanghai Expo)——这是另外一个奥运会式的盛事，投资者希望它能够推涨股指。
王女士说：“现在，我们期待世博会能带来一点反弹。” 显然，中国投资者仍在希望靠“大政府”和“盛事”提振股市。也许，中国政府已不再热衷于对股市进行重大干预。但对个人投资者来说，他们或许还得过一段时间才能意识到，炒股需要靠自己。
译者/汪洋
阅读本文章英文,请点击 Olympic turning point for investors
Olympic turning point for investors
By Patti Waldmeir
Saturday, August 09, 2008
The Beijing Olympics mark an important moment in history for the Chinese people. But the Games have an added significance for those millions of small investors who hope that their taking place could also mark a turning point for the Shanghai stock market.
As the Games kick off tonight, no one can predict how many medals China will win – or how the Shanghai market will react to national triumph or humiliation on the medals front.
In a market that is so heavily influenced by sentiment, it is impossible to rule out a big Olympic-inspired move in either direction, according to analysts who follow Chinese equities.
But Shanghai market watchers say that nationalistic euphoria or dismay would prove short-lived.
Of more long-term importance is the behaviour of the Chinese government.
In the run-up to the Games, Beijing has been vocal about the need for market stability. The China Securities Regulatory Commission, the market watchdog, has tried to muzzle Chinese fund managers and ban them from travelling abroad. Late last month, the CSRC warned fund managers (including Sino-foreign joint ventures) not to say anything publicly that could lead to market volatility (so now none of them want to be quoted in the press).
But most private Chinese investors had expected much more aggressive intervention. Only a few months ago, the conventional wisdom was that Beijing would want a strong market to show off at Olympics time. Indeed, many retail investors thought that they could count on the government to prop up share prices as a matter of national pride.
But those who believed that have sustained heavy losses. The Shanghai composite index closed yesterday at 2,727, down 55 per cent from last October's peak. The decline partly reflects the global sell-off in equities as a result of the credit crunch. But it has also been driven by factors particular to China, namely the market's previously high rating – it sported a price/earnings ratio of more than 30 in October compared to 17 now, according to Thomson Datastream. And fears linger that the government's desire to crack down on inflation could crimp economic growth.
Granted, the Chinese government has restricted the issuance of initial public offerings and called for stability in the market. And last week, president Hu Jintao reiterated that Beijing would continue to pursue rapid economic growth after the Olympics. But it has not taken more aggressive measures to help the market out of its doldrums.
Hope springs eternal in the Chinese investor, however. In the cool, dim public trading hall of the Shenyin Wanguo Securities company, just off People's Square in Shanghai, private investors still believe that Beijing will prop up the market during the Games. “Stability” is the buzzword here, as it is in Chinese politics and in society generally. “The government will support the market,” says a young man with a wispy beard and a winsome look.
“I don't think the market will fall further during the Olympics, because small investors would be psychologically out of balance if it does,” says a 60-year-old retired shop clerk, who is a regular market watcher at the Shenyin Wanguo trading hall. “We had a high expectation of how the market would go during the Olympics, but we have been very disappointed,” she says.
She gives her surname as Wang (in the current sensitive atmosphere, most investors will not give any names at all).
Ms Wang admits that, in spite of the market's decline, she has fun trading stocks at Shenyin and Wanguo. She enjoys sharing market vicissitudes with the other 100-odd people in the brokerage house's public trading room, for whom stock watching is a way of life.
Other investors pipe up as she speaks, including an elderly street trader who has Rmb600 () invested in the market and drops in, clutching her three-legged trader's stool to sit on.
In a market where, according to government figures, more than 50 per cent of investors are like Ms Wang, the street trader and the man with the wispy beard, what they think matters. Small investors do not appear to have given up on the market, in spite of its precipitate decline. There were more than 61m trading accounts open for trading in the Shanghai exchange in June, with a similar amount open in Shenzhen.
Indeed, according to a recent survey by the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, only six per cent of respondents thought that the market would fall further and 27 per cent were happy with its current level.
Mutual fund redemptions in the second quarter do not suggest that investors are giving up on the market, says Fraser Howie, a Shanghai market watcher and author of Privatising China: Inside China's Stock Markets.
Most analysts say that the Olympics have so far had little direct impact on stocks. “There is probably a stronger correlation with the weather than with the Olympics,” suggests Mr Howie.
Steven Sun, of HSBC, says that sectors directly impacted by Olympic restrictions – such as chemicals, cement and steel – represent less than one-tenth of one per cent of Chinese gross domestic product.
A more important factor is that Chinese officials have been distracted by the games, and so been unable to focus on pro-market policy-making, Mr Sun adds.
Mr Howie thinks the Shanghai market could now trade sideways for quite a while while other analysts, including Jing Ulrich of JPMorgan, think there could be a rebound. Ms Ulrich says that there is little reason to fear a post-Olympic letdown: “The key difference between Beijing and the majority of previous Olympic host cities is that, in the Chinese capital, the Games have promoted the development of infrastructure that is required as part of the city's long-term modernisation.”
She adds that: “With the market returning to more attractive valuations, real interest rates in negative territory, and respectable corporate earnings in the first half, the right conditions may be in place for a strengthening of investor sentiment.”
But in the Shenyin Wanguo trading hall, all eyes are on the Shanghai Expo in 2010 – another Olympics-style event that investors hope will boost the index.
“Now we're ready for Expo to have a bit of a rebound,” says Ms Wang. Faith in big government – and big events – apparently lives long in China. Beijing may no longer be interested in major interventions, but it may take some time before individual investors believe that they are on their own.
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